Iraq, along with seven major producers in the OPEC+ alliance, is preparing to take part in an online meeting scheduled for Sunday, September 7, to discuss the future of oil production quotas, as concerns grow over a potential supply surplus in the final quarter of 2025.

Iraq was among the countries that reduced output under previous agreements, contributing—alongside Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—to a collective cut of around 2.2 million barrels per day since the second quarter of the year. However, continued weak demand and a slowdown in Chinese stockpiling have presented new challenges for the alliance.

Ministers are expected to deliberate on three main options: suspending planned increases, proceeding with easing the cuts, or reverting to deeper quota reductions.

Analysts emphasize that any decision will have a direct impact on Iraq, the third-largest producer in the alliance after Saudi Arabia and Russia, and a country that relies heavily on oil revenues to fund its national budget.

According to estimates from S&P Global, some OPEC+ countries, including Iraq, produced below their allocated quotas in July, while surplus production capacity remains concentrated in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait.

Experts believe Iraq’s stance will be pivotal in the upcoming discussions, especially as the government seeks to boost oil revenues and secure its market share amid forecasts that Brent crude prices could fall below $60 per barrel by the end of 2025 if the oversupply persists.