Amid escalating tensions between Tehran and Tel Aviv, Gulf countries are increasingly concerned about the possibility of a second war between Iran and Israel while trying to maintain a balanced stance to avoid sliding into the heart of the conflict.

These concerns are not unfounded, as military and media escalation between the two sides continues, with mutual hints of retaliation and counterattacks. Although the first war ended after twelve days, the fragility of the truce and renewed threats raise the possibility of a wider escalation.

In Gulf capitals—especially Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and Doha—a state of anticipation prevails. So far, these countries lean toward a “tactical neutrality” strategy similar to the one adopted in the previous war: no direct involvement while maintaining ties with the United States and Israel, and at the same time avoiding provocation of Iran. But this balance appears shaky and could collapse if the crisis escalates.

According to diplomatic sources cited in a report by the German network DW (Persian edition), there is behind-the-scenes Gulf activity to prevent escalation, particularly from Qatar and Oman, which traditionally play mediating roles.

However, open confrontation scenarios pose difficult questions for these countries, especially those hosting U.S. military bases on their soil.

In Tehran, the messages were clearer. Iranian officials warned that any repeat of Israeli attacks would be met with a strong response and that countries allowing their territory or airspace to be used for operations against Iran would not be safe from retaliation. The message clearly targets the Gulf.

According to analysts, Gulf options in case of war break down into three main scenarios:

1. Limited conflict—In this case, Gulf states would likely repeat their previous policy of neutrality and indirect mediation.

2. Attacks on energy infrastructure or vital facilities—This could lead countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE to coordinate more closely with Washington and perhaps Tel Aviv, especially if economic security is at stake.

3. Direct targeting of U.S. bases or a broader regional threat—In this complex scenario, Gulf neutrality would completely collapse.

Despite these possibilities, Gulf states strive to keep communication channels open with all parties, recognizing that being drawn into a major confrontation would carry a high political and economic cost.

Yet, the region’s volatile reality does not guarantee that neutrality will remain a viable option, especially if the conflict escalates into a full-scale confrontation that defies traditional calculations.